2011 ELECTION AND THE DISCONSENTING CONSESUS (1).

It is pertinent to start by saying that  any election and  electioneering process is a core component of democratic  governance being a concept that emerged from the principles that are based on the understanding that an effective system of democratic governance is one which is based on representative, equitable (across gender and other categories), transparent, accountable and inclusive institutions; a vibrant, responsible and capable media; and a dynamic civil society which is engaged in the political process. If there is a consensus on why we should have an election as against a ritualistic, self-evoking, verbal vituperations and war like pre-election exercises that is currently gaining grounds in Nigeria, there are indications that there disconcerted understanding amongst various socio-political groups in Nigeria on the meaning of ‘election’. This is very evident on how we have sub-consciously tied the 2011 election with the PDP zoning arrangement and why the President Jonathan should not run or in the next election. They sure have no connections whatsoever considering the Nigerian constitution, at the same time you can’t rubbish an agreement reached by a group who shared same political ideology if you were not present at the zoning meeting that led to that arrangement, but whether this agreement could be binding on us as a nation is another question entirely. My point here is that the topic of zoning has dominated conversation above the election and election process itself. It is like leaving leprosy on your skin and be tending to a common enzyma.  X-raying the events of the last months as regards 2011 election and particularly since the appointment of Prof. Attahiru Jega as INEC Chairman shows we are loosing national priorities for personal and parochial interests. To understand the problems and challenges of the 2011 election will require an objective and analytical mind. Already, some members of the opposition party and including a section of the civil society have expressed concern that the forthcoming election will not be free and fair as witnessed from the past elections. On Thursday 22^nd July 2010 , Prof. Jega said that the commission would need between N55b and N77b for 2011 election, he faulted the voter register by his predecessor Prof. Maurice Iwu saying the commission closely looked through the existing voter register, sampling over 100 polling units from randomly selected 19 states and found out that there was massive inadequacies, including underage registrants, hundreds of blank or blurred photographs and multiple registration by same persons. He went ahead to state that for the commission to conduct a free and fair election in 2011, the commission will need funds to conduct a fresh voter register. He suggested the use of Direct Data Capturing Machines DDCM’s which will cost N50b, the cost of a single DDCM is $2,000 if bought directly from the manufacturer and INEC intends to procure 120,000 units of the machine. The Federal Government allocated N36.4bn to INEC in the 2010 supplementary budget approved by the National Assembly on Wednesday 22^nd. July. Before the budget review, N50bn had been earmarked for the commission. The Minister of National Plannning Dr. Shamsudeen Usman on July 8 said the development partners donated $80m for the 2011-2015 election, the commission is asking for another N10bn funding gap to conduct a credible election in Nigeria . Prof. Jega said he discovered that the most credible voter register was a model used in Bangladesh . He said the registration exercise took 8-11 months to complete and is now considered as the best electoral registration. There are comparable demographics between Nigeria and Bangladesh . They have a large population of 180million people compared to Nigeria of about 160million. The Bangladeshi deployed 30,000 direct data capturing machines for the exercise. The INEC Chairman is asking for the extension of the deadline for registration from September to November. According to Section 10(5) of the Electoral Act provides that registration of voters, updating and revision of the register of voters must end 120 days before an election. The reality we have now is that according to extant law, registration of voters of 2011 election must end on September 9 2010 , less than two months from now. If INEC will conduct fresh voter register, it has barely two months for this exercise and if the National Assembly amends the electoral act so that the voter registration will be extended to November giving the commission four months for the voter registration, which will be for procurement of equipment, shipping, deployment of DDCM in every polling stations across Nigeria and the eventual registration itself coupled with updating and revision of the register, Dr. Attahiru Jega admits it will be a formidable task.

This is the current reality as regards INEC and 2011 election in Nigeria , already, there are opinions and assertions that Prof. Jega will not conduct a credible election in 2011 or that PDP will rig the election again, or that 2011 election will be orgy of violence or violence of orgy, there are just too many distractions and digressions in the dailies, television and radios as regards the forthcoming election. Yes, I agree that there are so many issues and problems militating against a credible election in 2011 but one would expect a clear and objective diagnosis of the problem rather than blanket pessimism of concluding too early enough that an election relevant to our democratic life will fail. For example, I consider the views that PDP will rig the election with the power of incumbency as a non-intellectual engagement for any party or civil society group, the statement is archaic, outlandish, obsolete and is becoming morbid. Is it not true that when a truth is over-told and stretch beyond limit it turns into a lie? It’s such a de-empowering statement that peeved my bowel each time I heard the adage. To be progressive, we need to identify specific problems and proffering solutions to them. If the enabling law, the funding, management and conduct of the election is such that it is difficult or impossible to rig, how then can the election be rigged? We should start focusing collectively on the issues that are Germaine and fundamental to a successful election and garner supports and participation from every Nigerian at home or abroad. With the much talk, energy and resources draining election of Prof. Maurice Iwu, one would have expected that the most basic issues about 2011 election would have begun in earnest over a year ago, but few months to the election there are already fundamental issues that require immediate attention even to the altering of an electoral act few months to an election.  In marketing school, I was taught that there must be an exchange before a sale could be said to have occurred and exchange happens when a buyer or consumer is willing and able to pay for goods or services. I never forget this and I have come to realize that beyond monetary exchange, every relationship and human dealings are based on exchange whether concrete or abstract, mundane or sublimal. In my view, there are two requirements for Prof. Jega to conduct a credible election in 2011, one is the competence and the other is the will. I have no doubt that based on the comments of the INEC boss since his appointment, he obviously has a clear understanding on what it takes but as regards the will, nobody can know this except after the election. The only thing I do not understand is why he’s procuring 120,000 of the DDCM when Bangladesh used 30,000 units for a population of 180 million people, is it that he needed more machines to go round quickly because of the short time-frame? If yes, my next question to him is whether he has also thought about the logistics of deploying 120,000 machines and including the personnel and operational tasks in the same time-frame? Aside questioning the choice of too many machines, I do not see any fault or lack of good judgment from the INEC boss as at date. He wanted N74b in two weeks, change of date of the voter registration deadline and a bypass of the procurement procedures. I think we should focus on how we can assist him to succeed and then see whether he will indeed fulfill the promise of a free and fair election rather than burying him before his death, Thank God the National Assembly for granting his request for the deadline of the voter registration deadline.  I personally do not envy the INEC boss in any way for the task ahead of him; he will need the Wisdom of Solomon, consultations with the witch of Endor and travel to India to get the same magical power that was given to Prof. Pella. Should the 2011 election fail, he will be showered with torrents of abuse and criticisms. I remember the era of the inglorious Prof. Iwu how Prof. Wole Soyinka changed his surname from Iwu to ‘Wuruwuru’-meaning fraudulently-crooked, I guess Prof. Jega’s name will be changed to ‘Jegudujera’.  With the local and international uproar that trailed the last election and the wasteful and unnecessary antedant electoral litigations that span several years across states, a sincere society would have learnt from experience and start to plan early enough to make sure the country does not repeat the same error. Unfortunately it seems history may repeat itself if we are not careful and then we will begin to blame Jega as we blamed Iwu but the status quo is not changing in any way. It is obvious that political parasites, those whose political sun has dawned, bigwigs whose manufacturing dates have expired and lost active potency, and a new rave of juvenile political miscreants seeking popularity and relevance are using the zoning saga as platform to propagate rotten self.  I support the argument from some quarters that since the INEC Chairman was selected for the approval of the National Assembly by a sitting President, INEC boss could be loyal to the ruling party and in the future as it may demands, maybe we should change some these contentious issues breeding mistrust but again, the only free and fair election ever in Nigeria’s history was conducted under a military regime that pronounced Chief MKO as winner. The man who presided over that election was employed by a military dictator but he conducted a great election and even though the election was annulled by the junta, the man delivered his mandate. The people who wrote the constitution have better insights than us today. If a President chooses a man, the National Assembly needs to ratify the appointment; they can refuse a person if they are not sure the man will act independently, objectively and in national interest. Is Prof. Iwu not confirmed by The National Assembly? A National Assembly that represent our collective decision.  Prof. Iwu is not my ideal person  but I have beginning to feel he’s not the main problem of horrible elections in recent Nigeria, we are all collectively guilty because we matter on what does not matter and unmatter on what matters. I imagine how much progress the country would have made if the all the conferences, caucus meetings, governors’ meetings, elders’ meeting, articles in the dailies and the  talk-shops on TV about  ‘zoning’ are geared towards grassroots’ and mass communication on voter education and mobilization of the electorate, rather we continue to fuel voter apathy. What we need are actions and situations that will remove or reduce the identified problems of bias political mindset, poor electoral awareness, inconsistent priorities of political gladiators, political indifference and apathy, systemic failure masterminded by unpatriotic political detractors and others. I am not a politician and have never been involved in any political activities nor have any interest in the ‘goings on’ in the  political arena, but I have chosen to begin to ponder on the activities and I think every Nigerian should be interested in what is going on even if one does not participate actively but we need to know, this ‘knowing’ is the foundation for a democratic governance in Nigeria when people consciously and in consensus chose their representatives into various public offices.                                 

Yinka Ola-Williams specialize in Media and Development.

mryinvestigations@gmail.com